What I have done here is give my best guesses for the nominations major categories in which I feel qualified to give an opinion. I did not see any documentary shorts, so categories like that are out. Also, the hard-core technical categories like Sound Effects Editing are a crapshoot, so what’s the point? But as far as my actual opinions go…well, these are gold. Feel free to cross-reference with my post about movies I loved and hated in 2009.
Nominees: Avatar; The Blind Side; District 9; An Education; The Hurt Locker; Inglourious Basterds; Precious; A Serious Man; Up; Up in the Air
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
What Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Why: There are two big reasons why Avatar will not win: 1. Self-proclaimed “King of the World” James Cameron has already won a boatload of Oscars for Titanic to go with his technical hardware. 2. Actors still fear losing their jobs to computer-generated characters, and Cameron’s great leap forward could be seen as a reminder of that threat. Also, The Hurt Locker is a fantastic movie that sticks with the viewer on a much more visceral, personal level than the “How did he do that?” head-shaking that lingers following Avatar.